According to the Ukrainian Grain Association, Ukraine's production of grains and oilseeds in 2023 may only reach about 68 million tons, which is significantly lower, by almost 36%, than the record production in 2021 of 106 million tons, i.e. before Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. For comparison, in 2022, the production of grains and oilseeds, according to the UGA, amounted to about 73.8 million tons.

The main reasons for such a sharp decline in future production are related to Russia's occupation of part of Ukraine, mining and ongoing military operations, as well as insufficient funding and other resources available to farmers to conduct a proper sowing campaign and grow crops. In particular, the UGA estimates that farmers will plant only about 19.5 million hectares this year, compared to about 25 million hectares in previous years. Of course, much will depend on how successful the sowing campaign is, as well as on weather conditions throughout the year.

Under such circumstances, Ukraine's exports in the new 2023/2024 marketing year could reach about 43.9 mln tons. Conversely, in the current marketing year (ending June 30, 2023), exports could reach 56.4 million tons if Ukraine manages to maintain its sea export route. At the same time, carry-over stocks at the beginning of next year may amount to about 11.9 million tons of grains and oilseeds. The highest levels of carry-over stocks in history were around 25 million tons.

One of the peculiarities of the next year will be a decrease in grain production due to a reduction in the area under grain compared to this year, while the forecast for oilseeds production is increased due to an increase in the area under oilseeds, respectively.

Next year's wheat production in Ukraine may reach only 17.9 mln tons (compared to 20.2 mln tons last year and an impressive 33 mln tons in 2021) due to the reduction of wheat acreage by more than 2 mln hectares. However, even this low level of production is more than enough to meet domestic demand and ensure Ukraine's food security (especially considering that about 7 million Ukrainians have left their country), but it will reduce its export potential to ensure global food security. Next year's wheat exports may reach about 15 million tons, given that carryover stocks at the beginning of the year will be about 5.3 million tons.

The barley harvest in 2023 is estimated at 4.4 million tons, of which exports in 2023/2024 can be expected at 2 million tons.

Corn harvest at 23.3 million tons, of which exports in 2023/2024 can be expected at 19 million tons.

Sunflower harvest at 12.7 million tons, of which exports in 2023/2024 can be expected at 1.2 million tons.

Rapeseed harvest at 3.8 million tons, of which exports in 2023/2024 can be expected at 3.5 million tons.

Soybean harvest is expected at 4.4 million tons, of which exports in 2023/2024 can be expected at 3.0 million tons.

Of course, a decline in grain exports will lead to higher prices on world markets.